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Tom Wojcik’s report, based on figures through Sept. 26, traces the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure across fuel markets, fertiliser supplies and European harvests. It describes a fragile ceasefire that failed, disrupted shipping and rising risks to food and winter heating, while some longer-term impacts remain forecasts.
Tom Wojcik, a Polish writer, published a report using figures through Sept. 26, 2026, tracing how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting oil supplies, food production and Europe’s winter heating outlook. The report describes tanker traffic down by more than 90 percent since Iran closed the strait in March, after U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February.
Wojcik writes that a fragile ceasefire briefly pulled oil prices back to pre-war levels in early summer before breaking down. Brent crude was near $97 a barrel by early September, around $105 by mid-month and reached $108 on Sept. 24, according to the report. Iran gave Washington a written proposal on Sept. 22 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, phased reopening of the strait and an end to the U.S. naval blockade. Washington rejected it, the report says.
The disruption has also affected shipping costs and fuel availability. Wojcik reports that the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF rose more than 600 percent in the war’s first two months and was up more than 2,300 percent for 2026 by early September. The fund’s manager said rates would fall if the strait reopened. In France, official figures showed 15 percent of fuel stations had run out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The government ruled out a national shortage; most affected stations belonged to TotalEnergies, where a price cap had drawn customers.
The report links energy disruption to agriculture through fertiliser supply and transport costs. The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization warned that shortages could reduce yields and tighten food supplies into 2027. In Europe, potato growers had planted less after a previous year’s glut, then faced heatwaves and drought. Their industry organisation expected a harvest down 25 percent, one of the smallest in a decade. Wojcik also describes Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and resulting restrictions on Russian fuel exports.
How Energy Disruption Reaches Food
The report matters because it shows how a blockage at a major shipping route can spread beyond crude oil prices. Fuel costs affect transport, while fertiliser shortages can affect harvests months later. Those pressures could compound existing food insecurity: Wojcik cites the World Food Programme’s estimate that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million additional people into acute food insecurity.
For European readers, the account also connects global markets to familiar household concerns: fuel availability, food prices and winter heating. Poland relies on coal and imported gas, Wojcik writes, making the region’s energy security part of his perspective. The report does not establish that every forecast will materialise; it maps risks from an ongoing disruption.
The Route Through Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is a major route for oil and fertiliser shipments. In Wojcik’s account, Iran has kept it closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. The International Energy Agency described the resulting disruption as the largest oil supply disruption the market has seen, according to the report.
Attempts to route shipping around the Gulf face other risks. Wojcik says the detour passes near the Red Sea chokepoint of Bab al-Mandab, where Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port during September. The report also places the crisis alongside the war in Ukraine: it says Ukrainian drones struck Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, while Russia’s refining output fell to a two-decade low.
“The world is not ending. But for thirty years we swapped buffers for dependencies.”
— Tom Wojcik
Ceasefire and Harvest Risks
The supplied report presents the situation as developing. It does not establish when or whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, whether negotiations will resume, or how long the disruption to tanker traffic will last. The report says Washington rejected Iran’s Sept. 22 proposal; it also cites a report that the U.S. president expects bombing to resume after the November midterm elections. That expectation is attributed reporting, not a confirmed decision.
Some impacts described are projections. The FAO’s warning concerns possible harvest and food-supply effects through late 2026 and 2027, and the WFP figure is conditional on sustained high oil prices. The final supplied source text ends partway through a discussion of wheat prices, so it provides no complete account of that market or of Poland’s winter heating outlook.
Signs to Watch in Autumn
Key indicators include any change in tanker traffic through Hormuz, new ceasefire proposals, oil prices and the security of routes near Bab al-Mandab. The course of military operations and shipping restrictions will affect whether energy markets ease or remain under pressure.
For food supplies, the next test will be harvest results and fertiliser availability as the season progresses. Wojcik’s report points to possible effects extending into 2027, but the scale will depend on how long disruptions continue and how much supply can be rerouted. The supplied material gives no date for a further diplomatic or military milestone.
Key Questions
Who published the report?
Tom Wojcik, a Polish writer, published it on his website. Its figures are stated to be current through Sept. 26, 2026.
How long has the Strait of Hormuz been closed?
According to Wojcik’s report, Iran has kept the strait closed since March 2026, after U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February.
What did Iran propose to Washington?
The report says Iran handed Washington a written proposal on Sept. 22 for a regional ceasefire lasting up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the U.S. naval blockade. Washington rejected it, according to the report.
Could the closure affect food supplies?
It could. The report says the strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser. The FAO warned that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies into 2027; those effects are forecasts, not established outcomes.
Source: hn
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